Global capacity planning for large cylindrical batteries exceeding 350GWh

On April 18th, the Shanghai Auto Show officially kicked off, with car companies such as BYD, Ideal, and NIO showcasing their muscles. Leading battery companies such as China Innovation Airlines, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Honeycomb Energy also unveiled their 46 series large cylindrical power battery products.

Large cylindrical batteries generally use all pole ear technology, which has superior heat dissipation and fast charging performance compared to square batteries. In addition, car companies such as Tesla and BMW actively promote the installation of 46 series large cylindrical batteries, both domestic and foreign battery companies have followed up on the layout of large cylindrical batteries. According to the data, as of April 2023, there are over 50 large cylindrical battery companies in China and abroad, with over 15 companies reaching the GWh level of production capacity planning. The global total planned production capacity of large cylindrical batteries exceeds 350GWh.

Large cylindrical batteries are mainly available in 4-series sizes and are now mostly used in the field of power batteries. It is expected that by 2025, the global demand for 4-series large cylindrical power batteries is expected to exceed 150GWh, mainly due to the following factors:

1) End customers' requirements for the endurance and fast charging performance of new energy vehicles are constantly increasing, and all pole ear technology can break through the bottleneck of fast charging and overcome the problem of temperature rise during high rate charging and discharging;

2) Some battery companies such as LGES and Panasonic have strengthened their advantages in cylindrical battery manufacturing, continuously laid out their product lines, and increased their efforts in new product development to enhance their competitiveness;

3) Compared to square and soft pack batteries, the 4-series large cylindrical batteries have a higher tolerance for expansion and are more suitable for carrying the next generation of lithium-ion silicon-based negative electrode materials;

4) Compared to 18650, 21700, etc., the single cell capacity of the 4-series large cylindrical battery is larger, which is more conducive to the battery pack PACK design. Its group efficiency is improved, the demand for structural components is reduced, the PACK cost is low, and it is better adapted to technologies such as CTC;

5) Driven by Tesla's wind vane, domestic and foreign car companies such as BMW, Ford, and NIO have successively planned to apply 4-series large cylindrical batteries.

However, the 4-series large cylindrical power battery already has mass production technology, but its yield is still relatively low. At present, the yield of 4-series large cylindrical power batteries in domestic enterprises is below 90% (cylindrical 18650>97%, square>93%), resulting in high production costs and unclear cost-effectiveness advantages.

The reason for the low yield rate is that there are still some technical difficulties in the cell assembly section of all pole ear large cylindrical batteries using hard connection technology, mainly reflected in:

1) End face shaping treatment: The difficulty lies in the multi pole ear process, where the wound pole ear is perpendicular to the two end faces of the battery cell. Currently, end face shaping can be solved through kneading technology.

2) Welding of the collector plate: The difficulty in welding the collector plate with the collector fluid lies in the high requirements for welding accuracy and temperature control when welding from thick to thin. Technically, it is necessary to avoid false welding, welding perforation, and also to avoid battery short circuits caused by thermal contraction or splashing breakdown of the diaphragm caused by increased welding temperature. At present, the industry can achieve high-quality, high stability, and high-efficiency penetration welding through flying laser welding.

3) Welding of collector plate and pole: The difficulty of welding collector plate and pole also lies in the penetration welding from thick to thin. In the industry, this problem is solved by changing structural components such as forming step poles to reduce process difficulty.

In the future, with the continuous progress of lithium battery production technology, its technical difficulties will also be continuously broken through. By combining the performance advantages of large cylindrical batteries, they will experience rapid development and market penetration.

In order to provide detailed and accurate decision-making and investment basis for the industry and investment community, GGII conducted extensive on-site research on national large cylindrical battery production enterprises and their supporting upstream and downstream enterprises, combined with face-to-face interviews with leading figures in the large cylindrical battery industry, and collected a large amount of first-hand information to form the "2023 Global Large Cylindrical Lithium Battery Industry Analysis Report".

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